FRIDAY,  DECEMBER 5,  2008

I'M OFF TO A BRIEFING.  WILL BE BACK LATER WITH MORE.

BABY, IT'S COLD OUTSIDE - AT 3:14 P.M. ET:  From the UK's Guardian:  This year is set to be the coolest since 2000, according to a preliminary estimate of global average temperature that is due to be released next week by the Met Office. The global average for 2008 should come in close to 14.3C, which is 0.14C below the average temperature for 2001-07.

COMMENT:  Do not think what you're thinking.  It is not permitted in the new order.  The story goes on:

The relatively chilly temperatures compared with recent years are not evidence that global warming is slowing however, say climate scientists at the Met Office. "Absolutely not," said Dr Peter Stott, the manager of understanding and attributing climate change at the Met Office's Hadley Centre. "If we are going to understand climate change we need to look at long-term trends.

COMMENT:  Huh?  Did you get that title?  "...the manager of understanding and attributing climate change at the Met Office's Hadley Centre."  Help, help!  We are drowning in P.C. here!

LINGUISTIC OUTRAGE - AT 2:48 P.M. ET:  Sometimes I forget the exact meaning of a word, and look it up to be sure.  A few minutes ago I looked up the word "trope," using my online Oxford American dictionary.  This is what I found:

trope
noun
a figurative or metaphorical use of a word or expression : he used the two-Americas trope to explain how a nation free and democratic at home could act wantonly abroad.

Nothing like a little left-wing political propaganda in a dictionary.  I shall protest.

CAPITALIST PIGS!! - AT 2:39 P.M. ET:   Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Harvard University, the oldest U.S. college, plans to sell taxable and non-taxable bonds to repay debt and terminate interest-rate swap agreements.

The university will offer $600 million of top-rated, tax- exempt bonds next week, Bloomberg data show. Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Harvard also plans a separate sale of 5-, 10- and 30-year debt as soon as today, according to a person familiar with the transaction.

Harvard’s endowment decreased 22 percent, or $8 billion, in the first four months of fiscal 2009, putting the fund on course to have its worst performance in at least four decades.

COMMENT:  The revenge of Larry Summers.  Harvard forced him out as president, and look what happens.

HOW DOW? - AT 1:41 P.M. ET:  The Dow is down 103.

AREN'T WE LUCKY - AT 8:51 A.M. ET:  From The Times of London:  Fidel Castro, the former President of Cuba, has offered to talk to Barack Obama, in Havana's latest overture to the US President elect.  "With Obama, talks could happen anywhere he wants," the former head of the Communist regime wrote in the latest of a series of columns he has published in state-run media since falling ill in 2006.

COMMENT:  If he's the former president, why is he making the invitation?  Don't they have a current president?  Oh, it's his brother.  I guess it's okay.  Family businesses are like that. 

THEY DROVE ALL THE WAY TO D.C. FOR THIS? - AT 8:22 A.M. ET:  From The New York Times:  WASHINGTON — The chief executives of America’s foundering automobile manufacturers returned to Capitol Hill on Thursday and found themselves confronting years of pent-up anger, the harsh politics of a recession and the realization that even their strongest supporters might not be able to muster the votes to save them.

COMMENT:  No matter how you feel about it, every story like this gets the automotive Titanic closer to the iceberg.  Who wants to go into a showroom today and buy an American car from a company that may go under?

UNILATERAL SURRENDER

Posted at 7:48 a.m. ET

We've visited this subject before, but it bears emphasis again: Many don't realize that our nuclear weapons, the heart of our deterrent, are aging and becoming obsolete, while other nations forge ahead with modernization.  The Washington Post reports on a dilemma facing President-elect Obama, and the opinions of one especially nutty California congresswoman who's causing all kinds of trouble.

The leader of the U.S. Strategic Command said yesterday that "time is not on our side" to modernize the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile, particularly as China and Russia upgrade their nuclear warheads and delivery systems.

"The path of inaction is a path leading toward nuclear disarmament. . . . The time to act is now," Air Force Gen. Kevin P. Chilton told an audience of government, military and civilian arms experts attending the Nuclear Deterrence Summit in Washington.

Problem is, to some Americans nuclear disarmament is just fine.  Isn't that what the "good" people do?

Chilton said he was concerned that Congress had effectively killed the Bush administration's Reliable Replacement Warhead program, which is designed to provide a modern, safer warhead with no new capabilities before the end of this decade. Expressing concern that the nation's Cold War stockpile is aging, Chilton said that "a reliable [nuclear] inventory supports nonproliferation goals."

The Dem California congresswoman, Ellen O. Tauscher, weighs in.  Here it comes:

Tauscher, whose California district is the site of one of the nation's leading nuclear weapons labs, became a leader in Congress's effort to eliminate the RRW program. She said the Obama administration should "take the high ground" internationally by developing a comprehensive nuclear weapons policy that includes ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, extending the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia and modernizing a sharply reduced warhead stockpile.

Oh, just ducky, Ellen.  Let's take that high road...and be the only one who does.  That'll sure be a gift for our children.

The key phrase is "...whose California district is the site of one of the nation's leading nuclear weapons labs..."  She represents the university crowd out there.  You know, anthropology and such.  By the way, she's considered a moderate among California Democrats.

She called on the United States to boost funding for the International Atomic Energy Agency and prepare a multilateral program to be presented at the 2010 U.N. review of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Increase funding for what?  The IAEA?  Aren't those the worthies who've been so effective in Iran?  Aren't they led by that ElBaradei chap, who spends his time attacking the U.S.?  More money?  Maybe we should raise taxes for that purpose.

The RRW program, Tauscher said, was "sound" because it was designed "to extend the life of the stockpile while adding security and safety features." It failed before Congress, she said, because it was "poorly presented." In its place, Tauscher proposed upgrading a tested warhead design while making clear it would have a lower yield than older weapons and would use less-toxic components and contain safety elements to prevent its use by terrorists.

Less toxic components?  Does she understand what we're talking about here? 

And she tells us the program failed before Congress because it was "poorly presented."  Are members of Congress that childish?  Is it the show that counts?  It failed because her party just wasn't that interested.

In a Foreign Affairs article released yesterday, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates stressed the need for a strong nuclear deterrent and expressed support for the RRW. "As long as other nations possess the bomb and the means to deliver it," Gates wrote, "the United States must maintain a credible strategic deterrent. . . . Congress needs to do its part by funding the Reliable Replacement Warhead Program -- for safety, for security, and for a more reliable deterrent."

That says it.  At least he's staying on as defense secretary.  We could do a lot worse. 

December 5, 2008.      Permalink          

WONDERS

Posted at 7:15 a.m. ET

Sometimes we read something that just sticks, and reminds us of how lucky we are.  Peggy Noonan, in today's Wall Street Journal, reports the following, about John McCain's return to the U.S. Senate:

He's come quietly back to the Senate, where one of his colleagues told him of an amazing thing. The colleague had been touring the young democracies of Eastern Europe during the American election, and he found it wasn't so much Barack Obama that immediately knocked out observers but Mr. McCain's concession speech. This is the first American transfer of power they'd seen in eight years, and they couldn't get over the peacefulness and grace with which Mr. McCain accepted the people's verdict. "It really impressed them," the colleague told Mr. McCain, and later me. It gave them a template, a guide to how the older democracies do it.

When he told me of this, I remembered the observation of a journalist who had covered Russia. The Russian newspapers had generally played down Mr. Obama's victory, she said, because it got in the way of the establishment line: that the corrupt American democracy is composed of two warring family machines that have the system wired and controlled with the help of their corporate oligarch cronies. It's not a real democracy but a pretend democracy, and a hypocritical one. This helps the Russians rationalize and excuse their infirm hold on democratic ways and manners. And then the black man from Chicago with no longtime machine or money is elected . . .

So the Russian press muted its coverage. Mr. Obama's victory upset their story line. They have to think up a new one now. They will.

We still await the new story line from the American left.  Apparently, if the nutroots out there are any indication, it will be something like, "Barack was good, Barack was pure.  But then he was elected with the help of the corporations and the militarists, and he's been forced to give in to them.  He's a prisoner in the White House, which shows how far we have to go."

Yeah, that sounds right.

December 5, 2008.      Permalink          

THIS JUST IN, AT 6:54 A.M.!!  From The Times of India: 

KATHMANDU: At a time when Maoist affiliated women's rights activists have been opposing beauty contests in the country, a gays' beauty pageant was held in Western Nepal's tourist hub Pokhara.

The All Nepal Women's Organisation (Revolutionary) in Nepal had, earlier, launched a campaign against beauty contests forcing the Indian joint venture Dabur Vatika to withdraw its sponsorship from the proposed Miss Nepal 2008 contest, which is now in limbo.

But the group did not oppose when Federation of Sexual and Gender Minorities (FSGM) organised the "Miss Beauty and Brain Pageant" in a jam-packed city hall of Pokhara.

COMMENT:  There are no words.

THURSDAY,  DECEMBER 4,  2008

THE THREAT

Posted at 8:10 p.m. ET

News of this report came out a few days ago, but I haven't seen any great expressions of interest.  But this new report warns of major security threats to the United States that are likely to erupt during the Obama years.

President-elect Barack Obama will probably confront a biological or nuclear attack at home or abroad if the U.S. and its allies do not act decisively to prevent it, according to a report released this week by a panel created by Congress.

The report found that the U.S. had taken important steps to counteract nuclear proliferation and, to a lesser extent, biological terrorism, but had "not kept pace with growing risks."

If you don't keep up, you haven't done anything, the power of these weapons being what they are.

"We have been losing ground, and we are less secure today than we have been in the recent past," said former Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.), the commission chairman.

One of the problems, of course, is that reports like this have been issued in the past.  Since we haven't experienced nuclear or biological terrorism, the reports are often seen as "crying wolf," yet the warnings make great sense.

"There should be someone in the White House who wakes up every day, looks in the mirror and says, 'What do we need to do today to reduce the possibility of a weapon of mass destruction going off someplace in the world, specifically someplace in the United States?' " Graham said.

Graham said the person could play an important role in highlighting nonproliferation issues when the administration considered agreements such as the recent deal permitting U.S. sales of nuclear fuel and technology to India.

Not a bad idea.  But I don't want a "defense intellectual" in that role.  I want someone with paranoid tendencies.  They get it right.

But some specialists, and some officials in the Bush administration, cautioned against appointing too many advisors.

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff urged caution Wednesday, saying that the government risked creating too many extraneous layers of bureaucracy by creating "a czar to do this and a czar to do that."

"I put a big yellow light on, [a] go-slow, in terms of reorganizations," Chertoff said.

By the time the bureacracy responds and gets organized, Washington could be turned into a parking lot. 

I suspect the news media will ignore this report after a day or two, and we'll go right back to September 10th, 2001.  I have no idea what it will take to wake us up before it's too late.

December 4, 2008.      Permalink            

DOW BOWS - AT 3:49 P.M. ET:  The Dow is down 245, to 8345.  Guess the "investors" didn't like that photo of the auto execs driving their slow-selling vehicles to Washington.

ANOTHER IAF - AT 3:16 P.M. ET:  From The Times of India:   NEW DELHI: With intelligence inputs holding terrorists could strike through the aerial route after the maritime one, the IAF has cranked up air defence measures to thwart any copycat strike of the al-Qaida's 9/11 strikes.

"This is based on a warning which has been received...We are prepared as usual,'' said Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major on Thursday, a day after defence minister A K Antony reviewed the "preparedness to deal with any terror strike from the air'' with the top military brass here.

COMMENT:  A new world.  IAF has, for decades, meant Israel Air Force in news stories.  Now we must add India Air Force.  However, I'm a bit skeptical about Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major's comment that this IAF is "prepared, as usual."  "Prepared" wasn't the word in Mumbai last week.  India may need some outside help on this.  Calling the other IAF.

BELLY UP?  OR IS IT CHASSIS UP? - AT 2:35 P.M. ET:   Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC executives are considering accepting a pre-arranged bankruptcy as the last-resort price of getting a multibillion-dollar government bailout, said a person familiar with their internal discussions.

Auto executives have warned bankruptcy would lead to liquidation as customers abandoned the companies. Staff for three members of Congress have asked restructuring experts if a pre- arranged bankruptcy -- negotiated with workers, creditors and lenders -- could be used to reorganize the industry without liquidation, a person familiar with that matter said.

COMMENT:  Problem is, the companies' first response was probably accurate.  Customers will abandon a bankrupt car company, fearing their trade-in value will plummet and service might become unavailable.  Would you buy a Buick if you didn't know whether Buick will be around in three years?   

END OF RALLY? - 2:23 P.M. ET:  The Dow is down 24, at 8567.  Not much fizz left, apparently.

THE REAL HEROES

Posted at 7:20 a.m. ET

The distinguished foreign-affairs analyst, Michael Ledeen, has a son in the Marine Corps, and takes an active interest in the military.  We need regular reminding of the sacrifices our uniformed services make for us.  Here, Ledeen quotes Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who will be kept on by President-elect Obama.  The secretary spoke of one wounded warrior:

Or Lieutenant Jason Redman. He is a SEAL – part of the Navy's elite Special Ops team – who took rounds from a machine-gun in his face and arm in Iraq last year. Jason posted a bright orange sign on the door of his hospital room at Bethesda National Naval Medical Center. It read: "Attention to all who enter here. If you are coming into this room with sorrow or to feel sorry for my wounds, go elsewhere. The wounds I received I got in a job I love, doing it for people I love, supporting the freedom of a country I deeply love. I am incredibly tough and will make a full recovery. What is full? That is the absolute utmost physically my body has the ability to recover. Then I will push that about 20 percent further through sheer mental tenacity. This room you are about to enter is a room of fun, optimism, and intense rapid regrowth. If you are not prepared for that, go elsewhere."

When we think of those in American society who regularly present themselves as victims, we should also think of men like Lieutenant Redman.  One Jason Redman makes up for a thousand professional victims.  During the holiday season, we must especially remember those who bear the battle.

December 4, 2008.      Permalink           

THE PEACEMAKERS - AT 7:14 A.M. ET:   GAZA — For the first time since the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, no Palestinians from Gaza are making the sacred annual pilgrimage to Mecca this year because of a power struggle over which Palestinian government is legitimate.

COMMENT:  But, of course, we want to give them a state as soon as possible.  Who would run it?  The survivors of the civil war?

OUR MUMBAI?

Posted at 7:08 a.m. ET

The Mumbai attacks, well executed and precisely planned, have raised questions all week as to whether we're vulnerable to a similar onslaught.  David Ignatius of the Washington Post explores the issue:

Like the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in America, the Mumbai terrorist assault last week began with a hijacking. Islamic militants seized a private fishing boat at sea rather than commercial jetliners, according to U.S. counterterrorism officials. But the attackers displayed the same deadly ability to coordinate a complex operation against multiple targets as did their predecessors on Sept. 11.

And...

The attack was meticulously planned: The raiders dispersed to several targets across the crowded city that had been studied by advance reconnaissance teams. They maintained communications silence on the way in, U.S. officials believe. And most important, they carried with them enough guns, ammunition and supplies for a long battle inside India's largest city.

The question:

For Americans watching the carnage, the obvious question was: Could it happen here? U.S. officials say the answer, unfortunately, is yes. And then comes a second question: If America is hit with another Sept. 11-style terrorist assault, how should the country react?

How vulnerable are we?

The Department of Homeland Security has been worried for more than a year about the danger of seaborne attacks. With an estimated 17 million small vessels plying the thousands of miles of U.S. coastline, the vulnerability is obvious...

...Technology is improving for detecting radiological devices that might arrive at seaports. But defenses are thin against bioterrorism and are almost nonexistent against seaborne attackers of the sort who terrorized Mumbai.

Gives the term "a day at the beach" an entirely new meaning.

What would happen if roving gunmen infiltrated U.S. cities and started shooting? Most U.S. police departments aren't well prepared to deal with such "active shooters," as they're called. Police are trained to cordon off an area that's under attack and then call in a paramilitary SWAT team to root out the gunmen.

Finally...

"Mumbai is a worst-case 'active shooter' problem," says a former CIA officer who helped organize a DHS pilot program on the subject last summer for police chiefs. "It had multiple shooters, multiple locations, mobile threats, willingness to fight the first responders and follow-on SWAT/commando units, well-equipped and well-trained operatives, and a willingness to die. Police department commanders in America should be scratching their heads and praying."

Of course, if we had a responsibly armed citizenry, trained to respond and work with the police, that itself could be a powerful deterrent.  But we don't, and won't, except in a few areas of the country.  It just isn't something the sophisticated classes do, my darlings.

December 4, 2008.      Permalink          

A GIFT TO TV VIEWERS - AT 6:38 A.M. ET - From The Politico:  Chris Matthews is dead serious about running for the Senate in Pennsylvania - and shopping for a house in the state and privately discussing quitting MSNBC as proof of his intense interest, according to NBC colleagues, political operatives, and friends.

COMMENT:  A relief to audiences and those allergic to high, grunting sounds.  Run Chris run.